What Happens to Gold After…?
How gold has behaved after events people ask about: every Fed rate cut, hike and hold, the turns in Fed policy, US presidential and midterm elections, record highs, and one-day falls or rises of 3% or more. Each page measures the move from the close before the event (for big daily moves, from the close that day) to 1 day, 1 week, 1, 3, 6 and 12 months later, lists every case and compares it with gold's normal behaviour over the same years.
After Fed rate cuts
+2.3% median after 3 months · higher in 33 of 58
Since 1990, gold was higher 3 months after a Fed rate cut in 33 of 58 cases (57%), with a median move of +2.3% and an average of +3.6%. Over all 3-month periods since 1990, it rose 56% of the time, with a median of +1.0%.
After Fed rate hikes
+2.3% median after 3 months · higher in 36 of 51
Since 1994, gold was higher 3 months after a Fed rate hike in 36 of 51 cases (71%), with a median move of +2.3% and an average of +3.3%. Over all 3-month periods since 1994, it rose 58% of the time, with a median of +1.4%.
After the first Fed cut
+1.1% median after 3 months · higher in 3 of 6
Since 1995, gold was higher 3 months after the Fed's first cut after a run of hikes in 3 of 6 cases (50%), with a median move of +1.1% and an average of +1.4%. Over all 3-month periods since 1995, it rose 58% of the time, with a median of +1.5%.
After the last Fed hike
+1.3% median after 3 months · higher in 5 of 6
Since 1995, gold was higher 3 months after the last hike of a tightening cycle in 5 of 6 cases (83%), with a median move of +1.3% and an average of +1.3%. Over all 3-month periods since 1995, it rose 58% of the time, with a median of +1.5%.
When the Fed holds rates
+0.5% median after 3 months · higher in 95 of 178
Since 1994, gold was higher 3 months after a Fed meeting with no rate change in 95 of 178 cases (53%), with a median move of +0.5% and an average of +1.2%. Over all 3-month periods since 1994, it rose 58% of the time, with a median of +1.4%.
After a record high
+5.1% median after 3 months · higher in 5 of 6
Since 1971, gold was higher 3 months after a new all-time high after a year or more without one in 5 of 6 cases (83%), with a median move of +5.1% and an average of +7.3%. Over all 3-month periods since 1971, it rose 55% of the time, with a median of +0.9%.
After a 3% one-day drop
+1.4% median after 3 months · higher in 120 of 211
Since 1972, gold was higher 3 months after a one-day fall of 3% or more in 120 of 211 cases (57%), with a median move of +1.4% and an average of +4.3%. Over all 3-month periods since 1972, it rose 54% of the time, with a median of +0.7%.
After a 3% one-day rise
+1.1% median after 3 months · higher in 130 of 243
Since 1971, gold was higher 3 months after a one-day rise of 3% or more in 130 of 243 cases (53%), with a median move of +1.1% and an average of +5.2%. Over all 3-month periods since 1971, it rose 55% of the time, with a median of +0.9%.
After US elections
−0.6% median after 3 months · higher in 14 of 29
Since 1968, gold was higher 3 months after a US election in 14 of 29 cases (48%), with a median move of −0.6% and an average of +2.4%. Over all 3-month periods since 1968, it rose 55% of the time, with a median of +1.0%.
After presidential elections
−1.6% median after 3 months · higher in 5 of 15
Since 1968, gold was higher 3 months after a US presidential election in 5 of 15 cases (33%), with a median move of −1.6% and an average of −0.8%. Over all 3-month periods since 1968, it rose 55% of the time, with a median of +1.0%.
After midterm elections
+3.9% median after 3 months · higher in 9 of 14
Since 1970, gold was higher 3 months after US midterm elections in 9 of 14 cases (64%), with a median move of +3.9% and an average of +5.8%. Over all 3-month periods since 1970, it rose 55% of the time, with a median of +1.0%.
These are historical figures, not a forecast: past reactions don't predict future prices, and each case happened in a different economy. Not financial advice.